March 29, 2019 is looming, and the uncertainty of Brexit is being felt more than ever. Industries across the country are speaking out about what a no-deal Brexit situation will leave them to contend with. As supermarkets worry about replenishing their shelves and smaller businesses worry about the lack of spare change consumers will have, we ask whether the West Midlands are more susceptible to the uncertainty than other places in the country.
The Midlands Are Expected to Suffer
Economists have categorically explained that Brexit will leave the Midlands worse off. Government reports revealed that the economy of the Midlands would be 2% smaller under any Brexit scenario except remaining in the EU. Moreover, the figure is a worst case scenario and also suggests that in the next 15 years, the economy will be 9% smaller than it would have been had we remained in the EU. This doesn’t take into account the effect of migration from the EEA, which would also have an impact if certain sectors remained understaffed. The country’s economy on the whole will also decline by 2.1% – provided migration remains the same to keep the workforce strong enough.
The Economy Will Be Impacted
The state of the GBP and the Brexit timeline so far is a strong indicator of what could happen – and the currency has been in a tailspin when compared to the other largest economies – the USD and EUR – since June 2016. New developments in the process – such as deals being voted down and amendments being suggested to Theresa May’s deal have had a marked effect on the value of the GBP. Monitoring the performance of companies who may be affected by customs arrangements or staffing issues can be done via the FTSE 100, which gives up-to-date financial information to show the impact that every step along the road to Brexit causes with the FTSE 100 live chart.
What Issues Will Affect Midlands Businesses?
The customs arrangements are believed to be set to cause issues for businesses large and small. Particular issues have been noted in the automotive sector, which has a presence in the Midlands. Birmingham has benefitted from £1 billion of EU funding, the absence of which would certainly have an impact. Plus, one in ten healthcare professionals are EU nationals and the sector is already facing a mass exodus. Some cite the concerns for infrastructure as another way the region will be negatively affected as money will need to maintain global competitiveness and be siphoned away from other causes. Indeed, 40% of the region’s exports are to EU destinations – more so than many other UK regions. As a result, officials in the area are demanding more of a say in what happens with Brexit. Should export problems arise, the area will be hit hard.
While the next several weeks will prove seminal in the development of the Brexit deal the country ends up with. Regardless of the final outcome, there will continue to be ramifications for businesses and individuals across the board. Due to the expansive exports, the Midlands may have been dealt a bad hand by the government and may fall into a slump should measures not be in place to protect it.
